On 10 September the European Central Bank raised interest rates again: 25 basis points more, to 2.50% on the deposit facility. It is the second rise of 2026, after the one in June, and the ECB justifies it by the inflation generated by the war in the Middle East.
And the usual conversation starts: “With money more expensive, companies are worth less. Do I sell now, before it gets worse? Or wait for rates to fall?”
We have bad news for that conversation: you are probably asking the wrong question.
In 30 seconds
- Between January and July 2026, Spain recorded 17% fewer deals, but almost the same amount of money moved (4% less): the market is closing fewer deals, and bigger ones.
- In a simple exercise, raising rates by two points takes less than 2% off the price a leveraged buyer can pay. What really matters is the growth they believe you have, the return they demand and the credit they get.
- Don’t wait for rates to fall. Prepare what you control: demonstrable profit, credible growth and a company that works without you.
What the market numbers say
TTR Data, which tracks M&A deals in Spain, counted 1,804 deals worth €61,137 million between January and July 2026. That is 17% fewer deals than in the same period a year earlier, but only 4% less capital mobilised. In private equity, 231 deals worth €17,263 million: 11% fewer deals and 2% less in value.
Fewer deals and almost the same money mean the average deal is bigger (around 15% more, according to these figures) and point to more selective buyers. It already happened in 2025: 3,336 deals, 8% fewer, worth €103,085 million, 19% more.
A caveat: these are whole-market figures, with a heavy weight of real estate (410 of the 1,804 deals), and they do not detail what happens among SMEs.
Why rates matter less than they seem
A buyer that uses debt to buy your company pays more interest when rates rise. That is true. The question is how much it changes what they can offer.
We ran a simple exercise. A fund buys a company that earns €1 million a year of EBITDA (its operating profit), with debt of 3 times that profit at 5%. It wants to earn 20% a year over five years and sell at the end at 6 times EBITDA. With those assumptions, the most it can pay today is about 5.9 times EBITDA. Then we move each piece, one at a time:
Raising rates by two points, more than the ECB has raised them this year, takes a tenth of a turn of EBITDA off: 1.6%. By contrast, if the buyer believes your growth will be 0% instead of 5%, it takes off almost nine tenths, 14%. And if their bank lends them two times EBITDA instead of three, it takes off almost half a turn, 8%.
In larger deals, with more debt (5 times EBITDA), the effect of rates doubles, to 2.9%. It is still smaller than that of the other pieces.
The ECB does not decide the price. What a buyer believes will happen to your company does.
What to do about all this
- Don’t wait for rates to fall. You do not control the ECB’s calendar. You do control your profit, your growth and your dependence.
- Make your growth credible. Signed orders, recurring contracts and a realistic plan weigh more than any optimistic forecast.
- Look at your own debt. If you finance your business at a variable rate, it is worth reviewing the terms of your financing with your bank.
- If you are thinking of selling, start preparing. A well-run process takes months, and buyers, now more selective, reward tidy companies.
If rates never fell, would you still want to sell? If the answer is yes, the moment that matters is not the ECB’s. It is yours.
How we did the calculation
It is a simple exercise to see orders of magnitude, with these assumptions:
- A company with €1 million of EBITDA growing 5% a year.
- 55% of EBITDA is converted into available cash after taxes, investment and working capital, before paying interest.
- The buyer finances 3 times EBITDA with debt at 5% and uses all the cash to repay it.
- It sells after five years at 6 times EBITDA and demands a 20% annual return on the capital it puts in.
- Result: the maximum price today is about 5.9 times EBITDA. Each bar changes a single assumption and keeps the others.
It does not include fees, additional taxes or an investment plan. It is not the valuation of any company.
Sources: European Central Bank, monetary policy decision of 10 September 2026 (rates at 2.50%, 2.65% and 2.90% from 16 September) and of 11 June 2026; TTR Data, July 2026 monthly report and 2025 annual report (both in Spanish).
